An Ecomomic Forecast :: essays papers

An Ecomomic Forecast Evaluating the bull marketplace today, it is almost impossible to pick up a financial ledger without seeing news on the bull market that some gestate to be overvalued. Overvalued or fairly valued, only the future will present the truth. Either way, this market is one that has shown greater run ups and returns, than any former(a) market in history. (Reference vermiform process 1a) Recently the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached diachronic highs and then receded back to previous levels, leaving investors who atomic number 18 used to lucid and record setting gains month after month, baffled. Both the Dow Jones and the S & P 500 indices have seen modest and even flat performances over the bygone three months. (Reference 1b) A recent landmark that was published on the expect page of the Wall Street Journal emphasized that returns were flat collectable to the fact that investors were concerned of the possible on set of puffiness. If these concern s are warranted and inflation is thus expected, the Bull market may very well be over. This after all makes sense, inflation has slowed and stopped many run-ups in the past, and the barrage of inflation now could very well do the same. While the article introduced some possibilities, it said nothing of the likelihood, the causes of, the Fed.s reactions to, and the probability of expected inflationary increases in the future. This paper is thus dedicated to expanding on these ideas by exploring the rationality of these concerns by examining the circumstances surrounding inflation. It is my speculation that the Bull market may at last correct itself in the future, but not in the short term cod to immediate inflation. That is, that the market was in fact flat due investors concerns, but actual imperative inflation does not look to be expected in the near future. In order to begin to get wind the nature of market trends and forces, one must first consider the contemporary state of the U.S. economy congener to its business cycle. Certain aggregates can be measured that tell us a great deal to the highest degree this. These aggregates have a strong history of leading, coinciding, or lagging the relative business cycle with a high amount of regular correlation. Appendix 2a contains illustrations, which show graphically the trends of the leading, lagging, and coincident indicators over the past few years. These graphs are composites of each group, and upon examination it is clear that all the indicators are rising.